Preseason Rankings
Arkansas Little Rock
Sun Belt
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#264
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.2#319
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#305
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#197
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.4 11.4 n/a
.500 or above 19.8% 31.5% 12.6%
.500 or above in Conference 27.3% 35.2% 22.5%
Conference Champion 1.2% 2.1% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 22.0% 14.6% 26.5%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Away) - 37.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.20.0 - 1.2
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.40.1 - 2.7
Quad 20.4 - 3.20.5 - 5.8
Quad 32.2 - 6.42.6 - 12.2
Quad 48.2 - 6.010.8 - 18.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 259   @ Tennessee St. L 61-62 38%    
  Nov 16, 2018 7   @ Nevada L 60-83 1%    
  Nov 19, 2018 98   @ Tulsa L 62-72 12%    
  Nov 23, 2018 305   Howard W 72-70 68%    
  Nov 24, 2018 332   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 68-62 78%    
  Nov 28, 2018 303   @ Central Arkansas W 72-70 46%    
  Dec 01, 2018 258   Sam Houston St. L 64-65 59%    
  Dec 04, 2018 117   Bradley L 59-68 30%    
  Dec 08, 2018 303   Central Arkansas W 72-70 68%    
  Dec 19, 2018 101   @ Memphis L 61-71 13%    
  Dec 22, 2018 69   @ Georgetown L 63-77 7%    
  Jan 03, 2019 210   @ Louisiana Monroe L 62-65 30%    
  Jan 05, 2019 100   @ Louisiana L 65-75 13%    
  Jan 10, 2019 192   Troy L 65-69 45%    
  Jan 12, 2019 150   South Alabama L 64-71 36%    
  Jan 17, 2019 203   @ Texas St. L 59-62 30%    
  Jan 19, 2019 256   @ Texas Arlington L 69-70 38%    
  Jan 24, 2019 221   Coastal Carolina L 65-67 53%    
  Jan 26, 2019 175   Appalachian St. L 67-72 43%    
  Feb 02, 2019 286   Arkansas St. W 70-69 63%    
  Feb 07, 2019 192   @ Troy L 65-69 28%    
  Feb 09, 2019 150   @ South Alabama L 64-71 21%    
  Feb 14, 2019 256   Texas Arlington L 69-70 59%    
  Feb 16, 2019 203   Texas St. L 59-62 48%    
  Feb 23, 2019 286   @ Arkansas St. W 70-69 43%    
  Feb 28, 2019 148   @ Georgia Southern L 64-71 21%    
  Mar 02, 2019 85   @ Georgia St. L 60-72 12%    
  Mar 07, 2019 100   Louisiana L 65-75 29%    
  Mar 09, 2019 210   Louisiana Monroe L 62-65 51%    
Projected Record 10.8 - 18.2 6.6 - 11.4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 3.9 1.3 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.2 2.5 4.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 11.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.3 3.9 0.6 0.0 12.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 3.5 5.2 3.6 0.7 0.0 14.0 11th
12th 1.0 2.5 4.4 4.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 14.6 12th
Total 1.0 2.6 5.3 8.0 10.1 12.0 12.0 11.9 9.9 8.9 6.7 4.8 3.3 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 98.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 92.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-3 80.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 28.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 2.2% 2.2% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2%
16-2 0.2% 14.4% 14.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 14.4%
15-3 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.5 0.1%
14-4 1.1% 1.1
13-5 1.8% 1.8
12-6 3.3% 3.3
11-7 4.8% 4.8
10-8 6.7% 6.7
9-9 8.9% 8.9
8-10 9.9% 9.9
7-11 11.9% 11.9
6-12 12.0% 12.0
5-13 12.0% 12.0
4-14 10.1% 10.1
3-15 8.0% 8.0
2-16 5.3% 5.3
1-17 2.6% 2.6
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%